Abstract

Changes in consumer attitudes towards healthy eating and a growing preference for indulgent treats reveal a different landscape for the Irish bakery market in 2008 compared to six years ago.

Manufacturers have responded both to calls to change the formulation of bakery products to make them healthier, and to change how these products are marketed.

Furthermore, newer dimensions to the bakery market have been developed using quality ingredients and new flavours.

With the rise of wheat prices and other core ingredients, however, the profitability of the Irish bakery market may be challenged as consumers work out what is more beneficial to them: better value or value added.

Key themes in the report:

• Rising wheat prices have forced retailers to increase the price of bread on supermarket shelves. To what extent will the bread market be affected as a result?
• Health concerns have driven innovation in the breads, cakes and biscuits markets, while at the other end of the spectrum, sweet-toothed consumers are seeking indulgence and treats.
• To what extent has the children' s biscuit segment been affected by restrictions regarding advertising to children?
• Other dessert options are increasing in consumption levels while cake penetration has been quite static. Where does the future lie for cakes?

Table of Contents

• Issues in the Market
• Key themes in the report
• Definition
• Lifestage definitions
• Abbreviations
• Market in Brief
• Key drivers in the market
• Health dominates key areas of innovation
• All markets continuing to demonstrate growth
• Irish bread market growing faster than UK
• White bread suffers while other breads grow in popularity
• Internal Market Environment
• Key points
• Health concerns driving innovation
• Obesity and other associated health problems
• Health scares
• Reducing the risk of health problems through product innovation
• Functionality
• Food labelling
• Advertising to children under the spotlight
• UK advertising regulations
• UK advertising regulations -- non-broadcast
• RoI advertising regulations
• The outcome?
• RTE sandwiches replacing the packed lunch?
• Waste not, want not
  • Figure 1: Expenditure of white, standard sliced bread, measured in grams, per person, per week, by age group, NI, 2003/04-2005/06
  • Figure 2: Expenditure on brown bread, sliced and unsliced, measured in pence, per person, per week, by age group, NI, 2003/04-2005/06
• Cultural diversity leading to culinary diversity and NPD
• What does Ireland have to offer?
• Broader Market Environment
• Key points
• Wheat price increases
  • Figure 3: Percentage difference in CPI sub-indices over 12 months, RoI and UK, June 2008
• Shifting population and household structure
  • Figure 4: Number of households, by size, NI and RoI, 2000-05
  • Figure 5: Consumption of bread, by number of people in household, NI and RoI, 2007
  • Figure 6: Heavy, medium and light bread users, by lifestage, NI, 2007
  • Figure 7: Heavy, medium and light bread users, by lifestage, RoI, 2007
• Market Value and Forecast -- Bread
• Key points
• Steady growth expected
  • Figure 32: Estimated retail sales of bread, by value, NI, 2002-12
  • Figure 33: Estimated retail sales of bread, by value, RoI, 2002-12
• Price comparison
  • Figure 34: Price comparison of 800g size pan loaves, by brand and bread type, UK, 2008
• No real panic for future bread market
  • Figure 35: Consumer agreement with statement, ' On the whole I think well-known brands are better than a shop' s own-brand' , NI and RoI, 2002-07
• White bread
• Brown bread is boring -- not any more
• Other types of bread
• Part-baked bread
• Market Value and Forecast -- Cakes
• Key points
  • Figure 36: Estimated retail sales of cakes, by value, NI, RoI and IoI, 2002-12
• Chilled and individually wrapped cakes driving growth
  • Figure 37: Number of new chilled cake product launches, UK and Ireland, 2002-07
• Consumer cutbacks may slow future growth
  • Figure 38: Expenditure on cakes, pence per person per week, by age, NI, 2003/04-2005/06
• Slicing the cake market
  • Figure 39: Segmentation of cake market, NI and RoI, 2005 and 2007
• Individually wrapped accounting for largest proportion of cake market
• Large/whole wrapped declining slightly
• Growth in chilled segment
• Market Value and Forecast -- Biscuits
• Key points
• Biscuit market slump recovered through innovation
  • Figure 40: Estimated retail sales of biscuits, by value, NI, RoI and IoI, 2002-12
  • Figure 41: Number of new biscuit product launches, UK and Ireland, 2002-07
• Treats and healthy biscuits to drive future biscuit sales
• Key sector trends
• Companies and Brands
• Key points
• Allied Bakeries (Ireland)
• Joseph Brennan Bakeries Ltd
• Burton' s Foods
• Fox' s Biscuits
• Genesis Bakery
• IAWS Group (Irish Agriculture Wholesale Society)
• Irish Pride
• WD Irwin' s and Sons Ltd
• Jacob' s Fruitfield Food Group
• Linwoods
• Miller' s Bakery
• Pat the Baker
• Premier Foods/RHM Foods
• United Biscuits
• The Consumer -- Consumption Habits
• Key points
• Little change in bread penetration
  • Figure 42: Penetration of bread, NI and RoI, 2002-07
• White bread suffers as granary takes off
  • Figure 43: Consumption of bread, by bread type, NI, 2002-07
  • Figure 44: Consumption of bread, by bread type, RoI, 2002-07
• NI consumers more receptive to healthier breads
  • Figure 45: Penetration of bread, by bread type, NI and RoI, 2007
  • Figure 46: Percentage point difference of bread consumed most often, by bread type, NI and RoI, 2002-07
• More Irish adults consuming bread less frequently
  • Figure 47: Heavy consumption of white bread and brown bread, by gender, NI, 2007
  • Figure 48: Heavy consumption of white bread and brown bread, by gender, RoI, 2007
  • Figure 49: Bread consumption, according to heavy, medium and light use, NI, 2002-07
  • Figure 50: Bread consumption, according to heavy, medium and light use, RoI, 2002-07
  • Figure 51: Consumption levels of bread, by socio-economic group, NI, 2007
  • Figure 52: Consumption levels of bread, by socio-economic group, RoI, 2007
• Despite growing health concerns, Irish consumers retain their sweet tooth
  • Figure 53: Penetration of cakes (including frozen cakes and gateaux), NI and RoI, 2002-07
• Who are the cake eaters?
  • Figure 54: Penetration of cakes, by age group, NI and RoI, 2007
• Little and often for NI cake eaters
  • Figure 55: Weight of usage of cakes (including frozen cakes and gateaux), NI, 2005 and 2007
  • Figure 56: Weight of usage of cakes (including frozen cakes and gateaux), RoI, 2005 and 2007
• No sign of losing sweet tooth
• A quarter of Irish adults are medium cake eaters
• Light consumption in limbo
• Death of the tea and biscuit tradition?
  • Figure 57: Penetration of biscuits and crackers, NI and RoI, 2002-07
• Who are the biscuit eaters?
• Daily biscuit routine in decline
  • Figure 58: Weight of usage of packets of biscuits and crackers, NI and RoI, 2005 and 2007
• Heavy biscuit consumption in decline
• Majority of Irish consumers are medium biscuit users
• Light users on the rise in RoI
• Appendix
• Exchange rates used
  • Figure 63: Persons usually resident and present in the State on census night, classified by place of birth, RoI, 2002
  • Figure 64: Persons usually resident and present in the State on census night, classified by place of birth, RoI, 2006
  • Figure 65: Percentage of non-nationals, by country, out of total number of non-nationals, RoI, 2006
  • Figure 67: Agreement with ' I should do more about my health' , NI and RoI, 2002-07
  • Figure 68: Estimated retail sales of bread, by value, NI, 2002-12
  • Figure 69: Estimated retail sales of bread, by value, RoI, 2002-12
  • Figure 70: Consumption of breads, cakes, biscuits and crackers, NI, 2002-07
  • Figure 71: Consumption of breads, cakes, biscuits and crackers, RoI, 2002-07
  • Figure 72: Consumption of white bread, NI, 2002-07
  • Figure 73: Consumption of brown bread, NI, 2002-07
  • Figure 74: Consumption of bread, by bread type (all users), NI, 2002-07
  • Figure 75: Bread consumed most often, NI, 2002-07
  • Figure 76: Other types of bread consumed, NI, 2002-07
  • Figure 77: Consumption of white bread, RoI, 2002-07
  • Figure 78: Consumption of brown bread, RoI, 2002-07
  • Figure 79: Consumption of bread, by bread type (all users), RoI, 2002-07
  • Figure 80: Bread consumed most often, RoI, 2002-07
  • Figure 81: Other types of bread consumed, RoI, 2002-07
  • Figure 82: Consumption of bread, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, working status, household size and lifestage, NI, 2007
  • Figure 83: Consumption of cakes (including frozen cakes and gateaux), by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, working status, household size and lifestage, NI, 2007
  • Figure 84: Consumption of packets of biscuits and crackers, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, working status, household size and lifestage, NI, 2007
  • Figure 85: Consumption of bread, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, working status, household size and lifestage, RoI, 2007
  • Figure 86: Consumption of cakes (including frozen cakes and gateaux), by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, working status, household size and lifestage, RoI, 2007
  • Figure 87: Consumption of packets of biscuits and crackers, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, working status, household size and lifestage, RoI, 2007
  • Figure 88: Consumption of white bread, by demographic breakdown, NI, 2007
  • Figure 89: Consumption of white bread, by demographic breakdown, NI, 2007
  • Figure 90: Consumption of brown bread, by demographic breakdown, NI, 2007
  • Figure 91: Consumption of brown bread, by demographic breakdown, NI, 2007
  • Figure 92: Consumption of white bread, by demographic breakdown, RoI, 2007
  • Figure 93: Consumption of white bread, by demographic breakdown, RoI, 2007
  • Figure 94: Consumption of brown bread, by demographic breakdown, RoI, 2007
  • Figure 95: Consumption of brown bread, by demographic breakdown, RoI, 2007
  • Figure 96: Consumer attitudes to diet and lifestyle and grocery shopping, by all adults, bread eaters, cake eaters and biscuit eaters, NI, 2007
  • Figure 97: Consumer attitudes to diet and lifestyle and grocery shopping, by all adults, bread eaters, cake eaters and biscuit eaters, RoI, 2007
  • Figure 98: Consumer attitudes to diet and lifestyle and grocery shopping, by all adults, white bread eaters and brown bread eaters, NI, 2007
  • Figure 99: Consumer attitudes to diet and lifestyle and grocery shopping, by all adults, white bread eaters and brown bread eaters, RoI, 2007